Winning a College Football Playoffs bracket pool takes more than knowing who's good. With 12 teams, first round games on campus, top seeds coming off long layoffs and only 11 games in all, every pick counts. The players who win are the ones with a plan: they know when to go with the favorite, when an upset is worth the risk, and how their pool's way of playing and scoring changes the math.
Strategy for any College Football Playoff pick'em pool
How to win
Whatever your league's options, the winner is usually the player who simply gets the most picks right, especially in the later rounds, which can be worth more points. Spotting the upsets helps a lot.
Pick favorites most of the time
When every correct pick is worth the same points, heavy favorites win the large majority of their games. Save your upset picks for games that are actually close. (If your league uses underdog points, the math is different. See Underdog points below.)
Pick upsets where they're most likely
The best upset candidates are close games, where neither team is a big favorite, a top seed coming off a long layoff after its first round bye, or a favorite missing its quarterback or other key players. In the first round, the higher seed plays at home, which makes road upsets harder.
Let your pool's size influence how bold to be
- Small pool (under about 8 players): play it safe. With equal points per pick, that means mostly favorites. With underdog points, it means not chasing long shots.
- Large pool: you need some picks that differ from the crowd to finish near the top. If everyone picks the same favorites, you can't gain ground on anyone in those games.
Know how your pool scores each pick
Each common scoring method calls for a different approach.
- Pick the winner, equal points: every correct pick is worth the same, so favorites are the safer choice and upsets are riskier.
- Pick the winner, with underdog points: point values are based on the spread (see Underdog points below), which evens out the value of each pick. An underdog pick is worth more points, but it wins less often. To get those extra points, pick underdogs you think have a good enough chance to win.
- Against the spread: the favorite has to win by more than the point spread. The spread is set to make each side close to a coin flip, so research matters more. Is there injury or weather news after the spread locks? Big favorites don't always cover big spreads.
Pick your tiebreaker carefully
Close pools are sometimes decided by a tiebreaker, the total points scored in the championship game. Start from that game's over/under, the expected total points, which you can find on most sports news sites. Then adjust for injury and weather updates.
Strategy for poolsbyround bracket pools
Know which way your pool plays
poolsbyround bracket pools can be played 3 ways, and each one calls for a different approach. If you're in a league, your commish chooses one before the playoffs start.
- Pick Any Team: pick 1 round at a time, from any team still playing. This is the most popular way leagues play.
- Pick All Games: pick every game in the bracket before the first game starts. It's the simplest way to play.
- Pick From Your Winners: pick 1 round at a time, but only from the teams you picked to win in the previous round.
Pick Any Team: treat each round as a fresh start
A bad round only costs you that round's points. Since a wrong upset pick doesn't limit your choices next round, you can be a little bolder with upsets. Before each round, look at how the teams actually played, who's hurt, and each team's new points. If you're behind, the later rounds are your chance to catch up, especially when points increase each round.
Pick All Games: start with your champion
Your later picks depend on your earlier ones, so a team that loses early can cost you picks in every round after. Pick your champion and finalists first, then work back to the first round. In a large pool, a champion other than the most popular one can set you apart, but only if that team wins.
Pick From Your Winners: keep your contenders alive
You can only pick from the teams you picked to win in the previous round, so each wrong pick will leave you with fewer choices later. An early upset pick is riskier here: if you're wrong, you can't pick the favorite that beat it for the rest of the playoffs. You do get to see each round's matchups and news before you pick.
College Football Playoff tips
Rest or rust for the top 4 seeds
The top 4 seeds get a first round bye, so they can go about a month without a game before the quarterfinals, while their opponents have just played a playoff game. Don't automatically pick against the top seeds, but don't treat them as sure things either.
Home field matters in the first round
First round games are played on the higher seed's campus, often in cold December weather. A home crowd is a real edge, especially for a northern team hosting a team from a warm climate. After the first round, games are at neutral sites, so home field no longer matters.
Check how big a favorite each team is, not just its seed
The playoffs include the five highest-ranked conference champions, so a lower-ranked conference champion can make the field as a big underdog. Seeds don't always match how good teams are, so check how big a favorite each team is before you pick.
Check for injuries, not opt-outs
Playoff teams rarely have the opt-outs that bowl games do, since players want to play for a title. Injuries from a long season still matter, so check each team's news before each pick is due, especially at quarterback.
Strategy with poolsbyround league options
poolsbyround leagues can turn on extra scoring options, and each one changes the best strategy. Check which options your league uses. They're listed on the picks page in the Options In Play box, with more details on your league's options page.
Underdog points
With this option, underdogs are worth more points and favorites are worth less, based on the game's spread. That changes the math on upsets: a close-game underdog can be worth the risk, because a correct pick is worth more than a correct favorite. Heavy underdogs are still long shots, but yield a lot more points. Each team's point value is shown next to its name on the picks page.
Points increase each round
With this option, each round is worth more points than the one before, so your later-round picks, and especially your champion pick, matter most. Spend the most time on your later-round picks, and don't take a long-shot upset there unless you need to catch up.
Include points from your Bowl Games league
If your commish also runs a Bowl Games league, your Bowl Games and College Football Playoffs points can be combined on the leaderboard. A strong bowl season gives you a head start, and if you're behind after the bowls, the playoff games are your chance to catch up. See our Bowl Games pick'em strategy guide.
Over/under
Some leagues let you pick whether a game's total points go over or under the posted number. First round games are played on campus, where December cold and wind can push scoring down. Over/under points don't increase by round.
Tiebreakers
On poolsbyround, the tiebreaker is the total points scored in the championship game. If your league plays the over/under option, that game's over/under is shown there too. To minimize ties, poolsbyround may limit how many league players can choose the same tiebreaker number, so get your picks in early.
Spread lock times
Each game's spread locks at least 16 hours before kickoff. After that, the spreads don't change, and neither do the poolsbyround points, which are based on the spread. News that comes out later can give you an edge.
Not in a league?
You don't need a league to play. Players who aren't in a league play Pick From Your Winners, with underdog points, and points increase each round. They pick 1 round at a time, but only from the teams they picked to win in the previous round. They compete for the top spot on the Pick From Your Winners world leaderboard. With so many players, treat it like a large pool and make a few picks that differ from the crowd. With underdog points, a well-chosen underdog in a close game is the best way to do that.
Tips for league commissioners
- Choose how your league plays. Pick Any Team is the most popular, and it keeps players in it after a bad round. Pick All Games is the simplest, since everyone fills out their bracket once. This can't be changed after the playoffs start.
- Match the options to your group. Casual groups and office pools do best with Pick All Games and simple picks: pick the winners, with underdog points to keep upsets interesting, and maybe points that increase each round. Serious fans enjoy the spread and over/under options.
- Start anytime. A Pick Any Team league can still begin after the playoffs have started.
Put your strategy to work
Ready to try it? The College Football Playoffs pick'em pool is free, with no ads. Make your picks, or start a league for your friends, family or office and choose the scoring options that fit your group. See all the league options.
Playing in another pool? Browse all our pick'em strategy guides.