Winning a college football bowl pick'em pool takes more than knowing who's good. With players opting out, coaches leaving and teams that may or may not want to be there, bowl season is full of surprises. The players who win are the ones with a plan: they know when to go with the favorite, when an upset is worth the risk, and how their pool's scoring changes the math.
Strategy for any college football bowl pick'em pool
How to win
Whatever options your league uses (see below), the winner is usually the player who simply gets the most picks right. There are usually some upsets, and spotting them is very helpful.
Pick favorites most of the time
When every correct pick is worth the same points, heavy favorites win the large majority of their games. Picking a big underdog because "upsets happen" usually costs you more than it gains. Save your upset picks for games that are actually close. (If your league uses underdog points, the math is different. See Underdog points below.)
Pick upsets where they're most likely
Upsets happen more in bowl games than in regular season games. The best upset candidates are games with a small spread, a favorite missing key players to opt-outs or the transfer portal, a favorite whose head coach just left, or an underdog that's thrilled just to be in a bowl.
Let your pool's size influence how bold to be
- Small pool (under about 8 players): play it safe. With equal points per pick, that means mostly favorites. With underdog points, it means not chasing long shots. Being steady and right beats being different.
- Large pool: you need some picks that differ from the crowd to finish near the top. If everyone picks the same favorites, you can't gain ground on anyone in those games.
Know how your pool scores each pick
Here are three common ways a pick'em pool scores your picks, and each one calls for a different approach.
- Pick the winner, equal points: every correct pick is worth the same, so favorites are the safer choice and upsets are riskier.
- Pick the winner, with underdog points: point values are based on the spread (see Underdog points below), which evens out the value of each pick. The question becomes whether an underdog's real chance of winning is better than its extra points suggest.
- Against the spread: the favorite has to win by more than the point spread. The spread is set to make each side close to a coin flip, so research matters more. Is there opt-out or injury news after the spread locks? Big favorites don't always cover big spreads.
Pick your tiebreaker carefully
Close pools are often decided by a tiebreaker, usually the total points scored in one game. Don't guess a random number. Start from that game's over/under, the expected total points, which you can find on most sports news sites. Then adjust for opt-out and injury updates.
Bowl game tips
Check for opt-outs
Top NFL draft prospects often skip their team's bowl game. A favorite missing its quarterback or best playmakers may not be the favorite anymore, so check the news before each pick is due.
Watch for coaching changes and the transfer portal
Bowl season comes right after the coaching carousel and the opening of the transfer portal. A team whose head coach just left, or that's lost players to the portal, can look very different from the team you saw in November.
Motivation matters
A team that's disappointed to miss a bigger bowl may not show up. A team thrilled to be in its first bowl in years often plays hard. Ask which team really wants to be there.
Expect some rust
Teams can go three to five weeks without a game before their bowl. Long layoffs can make the early part of a game sloppy, and they make it harder to predict how a team will play.
Playoff games are different
If your league includes the College Football Playoff games, those teams are fully motivated and rarely have opt-outs. The usual favorites logic fits those games better than the smaller bowls.
Strategy with poolsbyround league options
poolsbyround leagues can turn on extra scoring options, and each one changes the best strategy. Check which options your league uses. They're listed on the picks page in the Options In Play box, with more details on your league's options page.
Underdog points
With this option, underdogs are worth more points and favorites are worth less, based on the game's spread. That changes the math on upsets: a close-game underdog can be worth the risk, because a correct pick is worth more than a correct favorite. Heavy underdogs are still long shots, but yield a lot more points. Each team's point value is shown next to its name on the picks page.
Bigger bowl games are worth more points
With this option, game points increase with a game's significance, based on team rankings, bowl prestige and tradition. The College Football Playoff and New Year's bowls count the most, so a few big games can decide your pool. Research those games the most, and don't take a long-shot upset there unless you're well behind. A wrong pick in a small early bowl costs you much less.
Risk
Risk lets you win extra points for a correct pick, but you lose points for a wrong one. If you keep risk off for a game, you do not lose any points for a wrong pick. Set it on games you're most confident about. If you're behind late in the bowl season, risk is one of the fastest ways to catch up. Each game's pick box displays the risk points won or lost. In the bowl games pool, risk is only available when your league picks against the spread.
Tiebreakers
On poolsbyround, the tiebreaker is the total points scored in the last game listed on the picks page. If your league plays the over/under option, that game's over/under is shown there too.
Spread lock times
Each bowl game's spread locks 40 hours before kickoff. After that, the spreads don't change, and neither do underdog point values, which are based on the spread. News that comes out later can give you an edge.
Not in a league?
You don't need a league to play. Players who aren't in a league pick the winner with underdog points, and bigger bowl games are worth more points. They compete for the top spot on the Pick the Winners world leaderboard. With so many players, treat it like a large pool: you'll need a few picks that differ from the crowd to finish near the top. With underdog points, a well-chosen underdog in a close game is the best way to do that.
Tips for league commissioners
The commish's settings shape every player's strategy, so choose them with your group in mind.
- Pick the right games. By default, your league picks all the bowl games. If that's too many for your group, for example skipping some of the smaller early bowls, you can select which bowl games to pick from. You can include the College Football Playoff games or keep them out and play the College Football Playoff pool.
- Match the options to your group. Casual groups and office pools do best with simple picks: pick the winners, with underdog points to keep upsets interesting, and probably bigger bowl games worth more points. Serious fans enjoy the spread and risk options.
- Keep everyone playing. Players who can't log in can still be added to the league. In this case the commish makes their picks for them. Also if a league player is late making their picks, the commish can make late picks for them.
- Start anytime. A league can still begin after the bowl season has started.
Frequently asked questions
What's the difference between picking winners and picking against the spread?
Picking winners is simpler: you just pick who wins. With underdog points turned on, an upset pick is worth more, so the value of each pick is evened out. Against the spread, the favorite has to win by more than the spread, so each side is close to a coin flip and research matters more. If you're in a league, your commish chooses which one your league plays.
What's the best way to pick a tiebreaker?
Start from the tiebreaker game's over/under, which you can find on most sports news sites, then adjust for opt-out and injury changes. To minimize ties, poolsbyround may limit how many league players can choose the same tiebreaker number, so get your picks in early.
Put your strategy to work
Ready to try it? The college football bowl pick'em pool is free, with no ads. Make your picks, or start a league for your friends, family or office and choose the scoring options that fit your group. See all the league options.