Winning an NFL pick'em pool takes more than knowing who's good. In a league built for parity, where almost any team can win on a given Sunday, the players who win are the ones with a plan: they know when to go with the favorite, when an upset is worth the risk, and how their pool's scoring changes the math.
Strategy for any NFL pick'em pool
How to win
Whatever options your league uses (see below), the winner is usually the player who simply gets the most picks right. There are usually some upsets, and spotting them is very helpful.
Pick favorites most of the time
When every correct pick is worth the same points, heavy favorites win the large majority of their games. Picking a big underdog because "upsets happen" usually costs you more than it gains. Save your upset picks for games that are actually close. (If your league uses underdog points, the math is different. See Underdog points below.)
Pick upsets where they're most likely
The best upset candidates are games with a small spread, a road favorite, a rivalry game, or a favorite coming off a big emotional win. A few well-chosen upsets a week are plenty.
Let your pool's size influence how bold to be
- Small pool (under about 8 players): play it safe. With equal points per pick, that means mostly favorites. With underdog points, it means not chasing long shots. Being steady and right beats being different.
- Large pool: you need some picks that differ from the crowd to finish near the top. If everyone picks the same favorites, you can't gain ground on anyone in those games.
Know how your pool scores each pick
Here are three common ways a pick'em pool scores your picks, and each one calls for a different approach.
- Pick the winner, equal points: every correct pick is worth the same, so favorites are the safer choice and upsets are riskier.
- Pick the winner, with underdog points: point values are based on the spread (see Underdog points below), which evens out the value of each pick. The question becomes whether an underdog's real chance of winning is better than its extra points suggest.
- Against the spread: the favorite has to win by more than the point spread. The spread is set to make each side close to a coin flip, so research matters more. Are there new injuries or a changed weather forecast later in the week? Big favorites don't always cover big spreads.
Don't miss a week
In a season-long pool, a missed week usually hurts more than a few wrong picks. Make your picks early in the week and update them later if news changes your mind. On poolsbyround, the default is to receive email pick reminders so you don't forget.
Pick your tiebreaker carefully
Sometimes weekly pools are decided by a tiebreaker, usually the total points scored in one game. Don't guess a random number. Start from that game's over/under, the expected total points, which you can find on most sports news sites. Then adjust for weather and injury updates.
Track how you're doing
Check the leaderboard each week. If you're well behind late in the season, you need to take more chances to catch up. If you're leading, play it safer and stick with favorites.
NFL tips
Make your Thursday pick first
Each game's pick is due at its kickoff, so the Thursday night game locks days before the rest of the week. Thursday games also come after a short week, which makes them harder to predict than the spread suggests.
Check injury reports before you lock in
NFL teams release injury reports during the week, and final inactive lists come out about 90 minutes before kickoff. A starting quarterback's status can swing a game more than anything else, so check it before each pick is due.
Expect division games to be close
Division rivals play each other twice a year and know each other well. These games tend to be closer than the spread suggests, which makes them a good place to look for an upset.
Watch out late in the season
In the last week or two, teams that have clinched a playoff spot may rest their starters, and teams out of contention may play backups. Check the news before picking favorites near the end of the season.
Strategy with poolsbyround league options
poolsbyround leagues can turn on extra scoring options, and each one changes the best strategy. Check which options your league uses. They're listed on the picks page in the Options In Play box, with more details on your league's options page.
Underdog points
With this option, underdogs are worth more points and favorites are worth less, based on the game's spread. That changes the math on upsets: a close-game underdog can be worth the risk, because a correct pick is worth more than a correct favorite. Heavy underdogs are still long shots, but yield a lot more points. Each team's point value is shown next to its name on the picks page.
The weekly bonus game
The bonus game is worth double points. Treat it as your most important pick of the week: research it more than any other game, and don't take a long-shot upset there unless you're well behind.
Risk
Risk lets you win extra points for a correct pick, but you lose points for a wrong one. If you keep risk off for a game, you do not lose any points for a wrong pick. Set it on games you're most confident about. If you're behind late in the season, risk is one of the fastest ways to catch up. Each game's pick box displays the risk points won or lost.
Over/under
Some leagues let you pick whether a game's total points go over or under the posted number. The forecast matters for outdoor games: wind, cold and heavy rain usually push scoring down. Games in domed stadiums aren't affected.
Head-to-head
In head-to-head leagues, you play one other league member each week. Whoever gets the most points wins the weekly match. At the end of the season, the best win-loss record wins the league, like fantasy football. You don't need the most points in the league, just more than your opponent that week. If your opponent tends to pick favorites, a well-chosen upset or two is how you beat them. Head-to-head matchups are typically set on Thursdays, shortly after the week's first game starts. Players who make their picks later are matched up on Sunday, just after noon central.
Parlay
Pick 3 games to parlay. Get all 3 right and you win extra points; miss any one and you lose 4 points. Upsets earn more parlay points. Playing parlay is optional. If you play it, use your 3 best picks.
Tiebreakers
On poolsbyround, the tiebreaker is the total points scored in the last game listed on the picks page. If your league plays the over/under option, that game's over/under is shown there too.
Spread lock times
poolsbyround locks the spreads each week on Thursday at 9 am central time. After that, the spreads don't change, and neither do underdog point values, which are based on the spread. News that comes out later can give you an edge.
Not in a league?
You don't need a league to play. Players who aren't in a league pick the winner with underdog points, and also play the weekly bonus game and risk. They compete for the weekly winner and the season title on the world leaderboard. With so many players, treat it like a large pool: you'll need a few picks that differ from the crowd to finish near the top. With underdog points, a well-chosen underdog in a close game is the best way to do that.
Tips for league commissioners
The commish's settings shape every player's strategy, so choose them with your group in mind.
- Pick the right games. By default, your league picks every game each week. If that's too many for your group, you can select which games to pick from each week.
- Match the options to your group. Casual groups and office pools do best with simple picks: pick the winners, with underdog points to keep upsets interesting, and maybe the bonus game. Serious fans enjoy the spread, risk, over/under and parlay options.
- Keep everyone playing. Players who can't log in can still be added to the league. In this case the commish makes their picks for them. Also if a league player is late making their picks, the commish can make late picks for them.
- Start anytime. A league can begin mid-season and runs through the end of the regular season.
Frequently asked questions
What's the difference between picking winners and picking against the spread?
Picking winners is simpler: you just pick who wins. With underdog points turned on, an upset pick is worth more, so the value of each pick is evened out. Against the spread, the favorite has to win by more than the spread, so each side is close to a coin flip and research matters more. If you're in a league, your commish chooses which one your league plays.
What's the best way to pick a tiebreaker?
Start from the tiebreaker game's over/under, which you can find on most sports news sites, then adjust for weather and injury changes. To minimize ties, poolsbyround may limit how many league players can choose the same tiebreaker number, so get your picks in early.
Can I still win if I join late?
In a season-long pool, a late start puts you behind on total points or total wins, but you can still win weekly pools.
Put your strategy to work
Ready to try it? The NFL pick'em pool is free, with no ads. Make your picks for this week, or start a league for your friends, family or office and choose the scoring options that fit your group. See all the league options.