Winning an NBA pick'em pool takes more than knowing who's good. With stars sitting out for rest, back-to-back games and a long 82 game season, the players who win are the ones with a plan: they know when to go with the favorite, when an upset is worth the risk, and how their pool's scoring changes the math.
Strategy for any NBA pick'em pool
How to win
Whatever options your league uses (see below), the winner is usually the player who simply gets the most picks right. There are usually some upsets, and spotting them is very helpful.
Pick favorites most of the time
When every correct pick is worth the same points, heavy favorites win the large majority of their games. Picking a big underdog because "upsets happen" usually costs you more than it gains. Save your upset picks for games that are actually close. (If your league uses underdog points, the math is different. See Underdog points below.)
Pick upsets where they're most likely
The best upset candidates are games with a small spread, a road favorite, a rivalry game, or a favorite coming off a big emotional win. A few well-chosen upsets a week are plenty.
Let your pool's size influence how bold to be
- Small pool (under about 8 players): play it safe. With equal points per pick, that means mostly favorites. With underdog points, it means not chasing long shots. Being steady and right beats being different.
- Large pool: you need some picks that differ from the crowd to finish near the top. If everyone picks the same favorites, you can't gain ground on anyone in those games.
Know how your pool scores each pick
Here are three common ways a pick'em pool scores your picks, and each one calls for a different approach.
- Pick the winner, equal points: every correct pick is worth the same, so favorites are the safer choice and upsets are riskier.
- Pick the winner, with underdog points: point values are based on the spread (see Underdog points below), which evens out the value of each pick. The question becomes whether an underdog's real chance of winning is better than its extra points suggest.
- Against the spread: the favorite has to win by more than the point spread. The spread is set to make each side close to a coin flip, so research matters more. Is there injury or rest news after the spreads are final? Big favorites don't always cover big spreads.
Don't miss a week
In a season-long pool, a missed week usually hurts more than a few wrong picks. Make your picks early in the week and update them later if news changes your mind. On poolsbyround, the default is to receive email pick reminders so you don't forget.
Pick your tiebreaker carefully
Sometimes weekly pools are decided by a tiebreaker, usually the total points scored in one game. Don't guess a random number. Start from that game's over/under, the expected total points, which you can find on most sports news sites. Then adjust for late injury and rest updates.
Track how you're doing
Check the leaderboard each week. If you're well behind late in the season, you need to take more chances to catch up. If you're leading, play it safer and stick with favorites.
NBA tips
Watch for back-to-backs and rest days
Weekend schedules are full of back-to-backs, with teams playing Friday and Saturday or Saturday and Sunday. Teams often rest stars on the first or second night, and tired legs can turn a favorite into an upset. Check each team's schedule before you pick.
Check player status close to tipoff
An NBA star's status, especially one listed as questionable, often isn't final until shortly before tipoff. Each game's pick is due when the game starts, so make your picks early and update them if a key player is ruled out.
Watch out late in the season
In the last week or two, teams locked into a playoff seed may rest their starters, and teams out of the race may give more minutes to young players. Check the news before picking favorites in April.
Strategy with poolsbyround league options
poolsbyround leagues can turn on extra scoring options, and each one changes the best strategy. Check which options your league uses. They're listed on the picks page in the Options In Play box, with more details on your league's options page.
Underdog points
With this option, underdogs are worth more points and favorites are worth less, based on the game's spread. That changes the math on upsets: a close-game underdog can be worth the risk, because a correct pick is worth more than a correct favorite. Heavy underdogs are still long shots, but yield a lot more points. Each team's point value is shown next to its name on the picks page.
The weekly bonus game
The bonus game is worth double points. Treat it as your most important pick of the week: research it more than any other game, and don't take a long-shot upset there unless you're well behind.
Risk
Risk lets you win extra points for a correct pick, but you lose points for a wrong one. If you keep risk off for a game, you do not lose any points for a wrong pick. Set it on games you're most confident about. If you're behind late in the season, risk is one of the fastest ways to catch up. Each game's pick box displays the risk points won or lost.
Tiebreakers
On poolsbyround, the tiebreaker is the total points scored in the last game listed on the picks page. If your league plays the over/under option, that game's over/under is shown there too.
Spread lock times
Most NBA spreads aren't set until the previous night's games are over, and each day's spreads may be updated till 9 am central time that day. After that, the spreads don't change, and neither do underdog point values, which are based on the spread. News that comes out later can give you an edge.
Not in a league?
You don't need a league to play. Players who aren't in a league pick the winner with underdog points, and also play the weekly bonus game and risk. They compete for the weekly winner and the season title on the world leaderboard. With so many players, treat it like a large pool: you'll need a few picks that differ from the crowd to finish near the top. With underdog points, a well-chosen underdog in a close game is the best way to do that.
Tips for league commissioners
The commish's settings shape every player's strategy, so choose them with your group in mind.
- Pick the right games. By default, the 10 best competitive games played Friday, Saturday and Sunday are pre-selected each week. You can keep them, or add and remove any weekend games you like.
- Match the options to your group. Casual groups and office pools do best with simple picks: pick the winners, with underdog points to keep upsets interesting, and maybe the bonus game. Serious fans enjoy the spread and risk options.
- Keep everyone playing. Players who can't log in can still be added to the league. In this case the commish makes their picks for them. Also if a league player is late making their picks, the commish can make late picks for them.
- Start anytime. A league can begin anytime and runs till the end of the regular season in April.
Frequently asked questions
What's the difference between picking winners and picking against the spread?
Picking winners is simpler: you just pick who wins. With underdog points turned on, an upset pick is worth more, so the value of each pick is evened out. Against the spread, the favorite has to win by more than the spread, so each side is close to a coin flip and research matters more. If you're in a league, your commish chooses which one your league plays.
What's the best way to pick a tiebreaker?
Start from the tiebreaker game's over/under, which you can find on most sports news sites, then adjust for late injury and rest changes. To minimize ties, poolsbyround may limit how many league players can choose the same tiebreaker number, so get your picks in early.
Can I still win if I join late?
In a season-long pool, a late start puts you behind on total points or total wins, but you can still win weekly pools.
Put your strategy to work
Ready to try it? The NBA pick'em pool is free, with no ads. Make your picks for this week, or start a league for your friends, family or office and choose the scoring options that fit your group. See all the league options.